Tropical Storm Colin is headed for Alligator Point.
Predictions for Alligator Point are for several inches of rain, strong tropical force winds of 30 to 50 miles an hour beginning as early 10:00 am Monday morning. Storm surge is expected to reach the point approximately 3:00 pm during high tide. Franklin County Emergency Management is concerned that the surge could reach a height of eight feet. That type of surge could close roads and possibly wash out Alligator Drive in front of the old KOA property where the revetment (rocks) is located. Residents and visitors should be aware of flooding roads and possibly downed trees and power lines.
This report was issued from the State Emergency Operations Center late Sunday:
- At 11 AM EDT Sunday, satellite and surface observations indicated that Tropical Depression #3 formed near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
- At 530pm EDT Sunday, T.D. #3 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin based on observations from Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft.
- At 5pm EDT, T.S. Colin was located in the southern Gulf of Mexico about 475 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, or about 465 miles southwest of Tampa.
- Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph with higher gusts, and some additional strengthening is predicted.
- There is still some uncertainty in regards to the eventual strength of this system. Most models, along with the official NHC forecast, predict weak tropical storm status prior to moving across the Florida Peninsula. However, some models have the system at tropical depression status while others show the potential for a stronger tropical storm in the Gulf.
- Tropical Storm Colin is currently moving north at 12 mph, but a turn to the northeast is expected within the next 24 hours. Forecast track models remain fairly consistent, with a Florida impact Monday into Tuesday and a potential landfall point in the Big Bend or northern Nature Coast.
- Portions of the Florida Big Bend and northern Florida Peninsula are within the 3 day track cone of error. However, impacts from this system are expected to affect a majority of the state, especially near and east of where the center of the storm travels.
- Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood. This includes the counties of Franklin, Wakulla, Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie, Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota.Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the East Coast counties of Flagler, St. Johns, Duval and Nassau.
- Current timing suggests bands of thunderstorms could be felt in the Keys and Southwest Florida as early astonight, spreading north along the Gulf Coast throughout Monday morning and affecting the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.
- Rainfall and potential flooding remain the largest threat. Total rain amounts from Sunday to Thursday could reach 3-6” across much of the Florida Peninsula, with isolated higher totals up to 8” possible along the Nature Coast.Flood Watches have been issued for Central and Southwest Florida.
- Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible across North Florida today as a result of the frontal system, with additional severe weather possible, including isolated tornadoes, on Monday across the Peninsula and eastern Panhandle. SPC has placed these areas in a “marginal” to “slight” threat for severe weather throughTuesday morning.
- The greatest chance for receiving sustained tropical storm force winds will be mainly coastal locations in the warning area. Inland wind warnings are in effect for Franklin, Wakulla, Taylor, Dixie, Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco and Hillsborough Counties.
- In addition, increased wave heights are expected along the Gulf Coast, leading to an elevated risk of rip currents and possible minor coastal flooding and erosion. Increased waves are also expected along the Atlantic Coast on Tuesday with rip currents expected.